DIE OFF - a population crash resource page
[Synopsis] [Search]
[Oil Depletion] [Economic
Theory] [Scientific Consensus] [Food,
Land, Water and Population] [Climate Change]
[Disease] [Moral Theory]
[Carrying Capacity] [Tragedy
of The Commons] [Sustainability] [Ecology]
[Systems] [Odds & Ends]
DIE OFF
"If
a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst."
-- Thomas Hardy
Petroleum geologists have known for
50 years that global oil production would "peak" and begin its inevitable
decline within a decade of the year 2000. Moreover, no renewable energy systems
have the potential to generate more than a fraction of the power now being generated
by fossil fuels.
In short, the
transition to declining energy availability signals a transition in civilization
as we know it.
Read the entire synopsis
now!
Click
here to visit--and if you like, subscribe--to the EnergyResources (news)Group.
Closely associated with this DieOff.Com web site, the EnergyResources Group
deals with the
systemic aspects of energy, ecology and human culture.
This web site was
created and maintained from 1999 to February 2003 by Jay Hanson
In February 2003,
Tom Robertson took over content development, maintenance and operational costs.
THE END OF FOSSIL FUELS
Click here for
links to other energy sites
FIVE FUNDAMENTAL ERRORS: The Short Version, by
Jay Hanson, 11/13/2001
FIVE FUNDAMENTAL ERRORS: The Long Version, by
Jay Hanson, 11/13/2001
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, by Jay Hanson, 11/13/2001
A SECT WITH A CREED AND A POLITICAL PROGRAM, by
Jay Hanson, 11/13/2001
REACHING FOR HEAVEN ON EARTH, by Robert H. Nelson
A MEANS OF CONTROL, The Last Scheduled BRAIN
FOOD, by Jay Hanson, 01/01/00
"The Foulest of Them All", by Jay Hanson,
Jan, 1999
MAXIMUM POWER, by Jay Hanson, 01/01/2001
The
human species may be seen as having evolved in the service of
entropy, and it cannot be expected to outlast the dense accumulations
of energy that have helped define its niche. Human beings like
to believe they are in control of their destiny, but when the
history of life on Earth is seen in perspective, the evolution
of Homo sapiens is merely a transient episode that acts
to redress the planet's energy balance. David
Price
Energy has always
been the basis of cultural complexity and it always will be. The
past clarifies potential paths to the future. One often-discussed
path is cultural and economic simplicity and lower energy costs.
This could come about through the "crash" that many
fear -- a genuine collapse over a period of one or two generations,
with much violence, starvation, and loss of population. The alternative
is the "soft landing" that many people hope for - a
voluntary change to solar energy and green fuels, energy-conserving
technologies, and less overall consumption. This is a utopian
alternative that, as suggested above, will come about only if
severe, prolonged hardship in industrial nations makes it attractive,
and if economic growth and consumerism can be removed from the
realm of ideology. Joseph A. Tainter
 
 
 
If one
considers the last one hundred years of the U.S. experience, fuel
use and economic output are highly correlated... Energy quality
is by far the dominant factor. -- Cleveland, Costanza, Hall, and
Kaufmann (Science 225: 890-897)
Industry deregulation of
electric utilities in the U.S. has cut utility investment in energy saving programmes
by 45 percent." [Reuters, 10/02/98]
METHANE MADNESS: A NATURAL GAS PRIMER, by Randy
Udall & Steve Andrews, 04/13/2001
Analysis of the IEO2001 Non-OPEC Supply Projections,
by Roger D. Blanchard, Northern Kentucky University, 4/9/2001
Emergy Accounting, April 2000, Howard T. Odum,
Environmental Engineering Sciences,University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida,
USA; htoeco@aol.com
"Oceanic Hydrates: more questions than answers"
by Jean Laherrere e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr
for Energy Exploration and Exploitation date May 3, 2000
THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE
OLDUVAI GORGE, by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D., Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological
Society of America, Summit 2000, Reno, Nevada, November 13, 2000.
ENERGETIC LIMITS TO GROWTH, by Jay Hanson, ENERGY
Magazine, Spring, 1999
THE BEST-KEPT SECRET IN WASHINGTON, Brain Food
-- Third Quarter, 1999
ENERGY AND RESOURCE QUALITY, by Charles A.S. Hall,
et al. (1992)
Is USGS 2000 assessment reliable ?, by Jean Laherrere;
e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr;
May 2, 2000; published on the cyberconference of the WEC on May 19, 2000
NOT ALL FIRST WORLD ECONOMIES DEPEND ON POPULATION
GROWTH: IMMIGRATION SINCE THE OIL SHOCK IN FRANCE AND EUROPE, By Sheila
Newman; smnaesp@alphalink.com.au
Oceanic Hydrates: an elusive resource, by e-mail:
jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr
THE HUBBERT CURVE : ITS STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES;
by J.H. Laherrère e-mail: j.h.laherrere@infonie.fr
An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns
Using Hubbert-Style Curves, by Albert A. Bartlett, Department of Physics,
University of Colorado at Boulder, 80309-0390; Albert.Bartlett@Colorado.EDU
"Quels sont les problèmes quand on parle de réserves?",
Jean Laherrère e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr
site: http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere
; Conférence AFTP du 31 Mars 1999 "Estimation des réserves et réduction
de l'incertitude"; Pétrole et Techniques n°423 Nov./Dec. 1999 p37-47
NEVER PUBLISHED ANYWHERE BEFORE!
Oil Production Curves for all 42 Countries, by Richard Duncan.
link to THE IMMINENT
PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION, by C.J. Campbell; A Presentation to a House
of Commons All-Party Committee on July 7th 1999,
THE WORLD PETROLEUM LIFE-CYCLE: Encircling the
Production Peak #3, by Richard Duncan, Institute on Energy and Man, Seattle,
WA, 1999.
The Post-Petroleum Paradigm -- and Population,
by Walter Youngquist; Population and Environment, March 1999
The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial
Stone Age, by Dr. R. C. Duncan, July 1996
The End of Cheap Oil, by Colin J. Campbell and
Jean H. Laherrère, Scientific American, 3/98
THE COMING OIL CRISIS, by C. J. Campbell, 1997.
Energy and Human Evolution, by David Price, 1995
Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies,
by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996
Evolution of "development lag" and "development
ratio", presented at "Oil reserve conference" in Paris
November 11, 1997 International Energy Agency, Jean Laherrère, Associate
consultant Petroconsultants, e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr
, site: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere.
Distribution and evolution of "recovery factor",
presented at "Oil reserves conference" in Paris November 11, 1997,
by International Energy Agency, Jean Laherrère, Associate consultant Petroconsultants,
e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr
, site: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere
The Impact of Declining Major North Sea Oil Fields
Upon Future North Sea Production, by Roger D. Blanchard, Northern Kentucky
University.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD'S HYDROCARBON RESERVES,
by J.H. Laherrère e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr,
lecture given in French on June 17, 1998 in Paris to SPE France
Assessing Oil and Gas Future Production, and the end
of Cheap Oil?, by J. H. Laherrere, e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr,
site: http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere,
for Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists in Calgary April 6, 1999
Reserve Growth: Technological Progress, or Bad
Reporting and Bad Arithmetic? by J. H. Laherrère; Geopolitics of Energy
Issue 22 n°4, p7-16, April 1999
What goes up must come down: when will it peak?
by J. H. Laherrère Consultant Paris France: e-mail: jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr
site: http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere
Titanic Sinks, by Jay Hanson, June 24, 1998
GeoDestinies, by Walter Youngquist PhD & Chair
Emeritus, Department of Geology, University of Oregon, 1997.
Renewable Energy: Economic and Environmental Issues,
by David Pimentel, G. Rodrigues, T. Wane, R. Abrams, K. Goldberg, H. Staecker,
E. Ma, L. Brueckner, L. Trovato, C. Chow, U. Govindarajulu, and S. Boerke.
(Originally published in BioScience -- Vol. 44, No. 8, September 1994)
eMergy Evaluation, by Howard T. Odum, May 27,
1998
Scientists sense urgency to find future energy sources,
Nando Times, October 28, 1998 3:08 p.m
Here We Go Again: The Oil Surplus Won't Last as Long
as we Might Wish, by James Srodes, Barrons, Oct 19, 1998
link to Joy
Ride to Global Collapse, by Jim Minter (1966)
Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization, Robert
L. Hickerson, August 2, 1997
WHEN WILL THE JOY RIDE END? Community Office for
Resource Efficiency
a snip from ENERGY AND THE ECONOMICS OF SUSTAINABILITY
by John Peet; Island Press, 1992.
the prologue to BEYOND OIL: The Threat to Food and
Fuel in the Coming Decades. Third Edition (1991) by John Gever, Robert
Kaufman, David Skole, Charles Vorosmarty.
Some fear the world may be running out of oil.
September 5, 1998, Nando Times.
SPENDING OUR GREAT INHERITANCE -- THEN WHAT? by
Walter Youngquist. Geotimes, July 1998, pages 24-26.
link Energy
apocalypse looms as the world runs out of oil. Forget the Caspian
bonanza! Peter Beaumont and John Hooper in Rome report that producers
misled everybody, Sunday July 26, 1998, Observer (london)
link June 15
issue of Forbes! CHEAP OIL: enjoy it while it lasts. p. 84 Franco Bernabe,
chief executive of the Italian oil company ENI, sees a global oil production
peak and 1970s-style oil shocks beginning between 2000 and 2005.
A Peak Under the Covers, by Jay Hanson, 11/11/97.
The Death of the Oil Economy, by Ted Trainer,
Spring, 1997.
Get Ready for Another Oil Shock, by L.F. Ivanhoe,
February, 1997.
Future world oil supplies: There is a finite limit.
Ivanhoe on Hubbert (1995).
Population and Energy, by Graham Zabel, August
2000
ECONOMIC THEORY
The members of the American
economics profession, as Arnold contended, performed a vital practical role
in maintaining this unique system of corporate socialism American style. It
was their role to prevent the American public from achieving a correct understanding
of the actual workings of the American economic system. Economists instead were
assigned the task to dispense priestly blessings that would allow business to
operate independent of damaging political manipulation. They accomplished this
task by means of their message of 'laissez faire religion, based on a conception
of a society composed of competing individuals.' However false as a description
of the actual U.S. economy, this vision in the mind of the American public was
in practice 'transferred automatically to industrial organizations with nation-wide
power and dictatorial forms of government.' Even though the arguments of economists
were misleading and largely fictional, the practical -- and beneficial -- result
of their deception was to throw a 'mantle of protection ... over corporate government'
from various forms of outside interference. Admittedly, as the economic 'symbolism
got farther and farther from reality, it required more and more ceremony to
keep it up.' But as long as this arrangement worked and there could be maintained
'the little pictures in the back of the head of the ordinary man,' the effect
was salutary -- 'the great [corporate] organization was secure in its freedom
and independence.' It was this very freedom and independence of business professionals
to pursue the correct scientific answer -- the efficient answer -- on which
the economic progress of the United States depended. -- Robert H. Nelson in
http://dieoff.com/page235.htm
Despite the madness of war,
we lived for a world that would be different. For a better world to come when
all this is over. And perhaps even our being here is a step towards that world.
Do you really think that, without the hope that such a world is possible, that
the rights of man will be restored again, we could stand the concentration camp
even for one day? It is that very hope that makes people go without a murmur
to the gas chambers, keeps them from risking a revolt, paralyses them into numb
inactivity. It is hope that breaks down family ties, makes mothers renounce
their children, or wives sell their bodies for bread, or husbands kill. It is
hope that compels man to hold on to one more day of life, because that day may
be the day of liberation. Ah, and not even the hope for a different, better
world, but simply for life, a life of peace and rest. Never before in the history
of mankind has hope been stronger than man, but never also has it done so much
harm as it has in this war, in this concentration camp. We were never taught
how to give up hope, and this is why today we perish in gas chambers. -- Borowski,
pp. 121-122
The need to reintegrate the natural sciences into
economics, by By Charles Hall 1 , Dietmar Lindenberger 2 , Reiner Kümmel
3 , Timm Kroeger 1 , and Wolfgang Eichhorn 4, 3/31/2001
Is the Argentine National Economy being destroyed
by the Department of Economics of the University of Chicago? , by Charles
A. S. Hall, Pablo Daniel Matossian, Claudio Ghersa, Jorge Calvo,Clara Olmedo
3/31/2001
FAITH AND CREDIT: The World
Bank's Secular Empire
NEOLIBERAL NOSTRUMS, by Andrew McKillop,
The End of the world as we know it, by Andrew
McKillop,
THIS WAY FOR THE GAS, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, by
Tadeusz Borowski, # 119198
Los Sangre Es en Tus Manos, by Jay Hanson, April,
1999
Dangerous Currents, by Lester Thurow; Random,
1983
"The Market" is simply "Too Cheap to
Meter", by Jay Hanson, 11/01/98
It's the Money, Stupid!, by Jay Hanson, August
10, 1998
Energy and Economic Myths, by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen
(1975)
What is Life?, by Erwin Shrödinger. First published
in 1944
Lunatic Politics, by Jay Hanson, June 6, 1998
THE ECONOMICS OF THE COMING SPACESHIP EARTH, by
Kenneth E. Boulding, 1966
Decision Making and Problem Solving, by Herbert
A. Simon and Associates, 1986
Opposing Globalization Could Justify Resource-Based
Basic Income, by Mary Lehmann
FREE TRADE - NAFTA - WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING
MYTHS OF THE POLITICAL-ECONOMIC WORLD VIEW, by
John Peet, 1992.
Energy, Entropy, Economics, and Ecology defines
"entropy" and how it relates to the economy.
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH: An Impossibility Theorem, by
Herman E. Daly (1993)
A Systems Perspective on the Interrelations Between
Natural, human-made, and cultural capital, by Fikret Berkes & Carl Folke,
Oct. 1991
THE 4P APPROACH TO DEALING WITH SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY,
by Robert Costanza and Laura Cornwell (1992)
THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE, is an alternative
to cost/benefit analysis
TOO MANY RICH PEOPLE: Weighing Relative Burdens
on the Planet, by Paul Ehrlich (1994)
WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE GDP is a description of the
Genuine Progress Indicator-GPI.
STEADY-STATE ECONOMICS: A Catechism of Growth Fallacies,
by Herman Daly (1991).
TOWARDS A NEW ECONOMICS: Questioning Growth, by
Herman E. Daly, 1971
MONEY AND MAGIC A review of H.C. Binswanger's Money
and Magic (A Critique of the Modern Economy in Light of Goethe's Faust) University
of Chicago Press. by Herman Daly (Winter, 1996)
SUGARSCAPE A review from
SCIENCE NEWS.
OUR PERPETUAL GROWTH UTOPIA by Fred Charles Ikle
(1994)
FAREWELL LECTURE TO WORLD BANK, by Herman E. Daly,
January 14, 1994
SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
RS AND NAS STATEMENT is the official 1992 statement
of the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences.
WORLD SCIENTISTS' WARNING TO HUMANITY is from the
Union of Concerned Scientists in 1992.
WORLD SCIENTISTS' CALL FOR ACTION AT THE KYOTO CLIMATE
SUMMIT
Science Summit" on World Population: A Joint
Statement by 58 of the World's Scientific Academies.
ESA Passes Resolution on Human Population from
the Ecological Society of America (1994)
ECONOMIST'S STATEMENT ON GLOBAL WARMING Feb. 13,
1997
ECOLOGIST'S STATEMENT ON GLOBAL WARMING May 20,
1997
link to TROUBLED WATERS: A CALL FOR ACTION
FOOD, LAND, WATER AND POPULATION
Humans have destroyed more
than 30 per cent of the natural world since 1970 with serious depletion of the
forest, freshwater and marine systems on which life depends. -- [Guardian, 10/2/98]
Age-adjusted mortality in
Russia rose by almost 33% between 1990 and 1994.... Russia is not alone in experiencing
drops in life expectancy; all the nations created from the break-up of the Soviet
Union have reported a decline in life expectancy since 1990, although none has
been as large as in Russia. -- [JAMA. 1998;279:793-800]
Africa is beginning of a full-on
Malthusian dieoff. See "Worldwatch Briefing: Sixteen Dimensions of the
Population Problem" at http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/pr98924.html
and "Life on Earth is Killing Us" press release at http://www.enn.com/news/enn-stories/1998/10/100298/killingus.asp
and study itself is here.
To put this in context,
you must remember that estimates of the long-term carrying capacity of Earth
with relatively optimistic assumptions about consumption, technologies, and
equity (A x T), are in the vicinity of two billion people. Today's population
cannot be sustained on the 'interest' generated by natural ecosystems, but is
consuming its vast supply of natural capital -- especially deep, rich agricultural
soils, 'fossil' groundwater, and biodiversity -- accumulated over centuries
to eons. In some places soils, which are generated on a time scale of centimeters
per century are disappearing at rates of centimeters per year. Some aquifers
are being depleted at dozens of times their recharge rates, and we have embarked
on the greatest extinction episode in 65 million years. -- Paul
Ehrlich (Sept. 25, 1998)
As capitalism fails in more-and-more
countries, these countries will disintegrate too. Ultimately of course, this
will lead to world wars over natural resources. See Homer-Dixon's work at http://utl2.library.utoronto.ca/www/pcs/tad.htm
BIODIVERSITY
DECAY
Recent Developments in Environmental Sciences,
by Paul Ehrlich, Sept. 25, 1998
Revisiting Carrying Capacity, by William E. Rees,
1996
WILL LIMITS OF THE EARTH'S RESOURCES CONTROL HUMAN
NUMBERS?, by David Pimentel, O. Bailey, P. Kim, E. Mullaney, J. Calabrese,
L. Walman, F. Nelson, and X. Yao; February 25, 1999
Ecology of Increasing Disease, by David Pimentel,
October, 1998
THE MASSIVE MOVEMENT TO MARGINALIZE THE MODERN MALTHUSIAN
MESSAGE, by Albert A. Bartlett. This is a revised version of an article
that was published in The Social Contract Vol. 8, No. 3, Spring 1998,
Pgs. 239 - 251
LAND, ENERGY AND WATER: THE CONSTRAINTS GOVERNING
IDEAL U.S. POPULATION SIZE, by David Pimentel and Marcia Pimentel (1991)
link to
U.S. FOOD PRODUCTION THREATENED BY RAPID POPULATION GROWTH, the Pimentels
(1997)
link to Food Security
for a Growing World Population 200 Years After Malthus, Still an Unsolved
Problem
Optimum Human Population Size, by Gretchen C. Daily
Restoring Value to the WorId's Degraded Lands,
by Gretchen C. Daily (1995)
An exploratory model of the impact of rapid climate
change on the world food situation, by Grechen C. Daily and Paul R. Ehrlich
(1990)
FOOD, LAND, POPULATION and the U.S. ECONOMY-FULL REPORT,
by David Pimentel of Cornell University and Mario Giampietro Istituto of Nazionale
della Nutrizione, Rome. November 21, 1994
CONSTRAINTS ON THE EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY,
by Henery W Kindall and David Pimentel (1994)
Response to Bartlett and Lytwak (1995): Population
and Immigration Policy in the United States , by Anne H. Ehrlich Paul R. Ehrlich
Chronic Famine and the Immorality of Food Aid,
by Joseph Fletcher (1991)
THE CORNUCOPIAN FALLACIES, by Lindsey Grant (1992)
IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON FOOD SUPPLIES AND ENVIRONMENT,
by David Pimentel, Xuewen Huang, Ana Cordova, and Marcia Pimentel (February,
1996)
KERMIT OLSON MEMORIAL LECTURE: Food Supply and
World Population, by David Pimentel (March, 6, 1995)
Putting the Bite on Planet Earth, by Don Hinrichson,
Oct. 1994
ENERGY AND POPULATION: Transitional Issues and
Eventual Limits, by Paul J. Werbos (1993?)
FOOD, LAND, POPULATION and the U.S. ECONOMY-EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY, by David Pimentel of Cornell University and Mario Giampietro
Istituto of Nazionale della Nutrizione, Rome. Executive Summary Released November
21, 1994
IMMIGRATION: NO. 1 IN U.S. GROWTH New Look Shows
Greater Role in 1970-90 Population Increase, by Roy Beck (1991-1992)
THE POPULATION EXPLOSION is from Paul and Anne
Ehirlich. This is also where to find JULIAN
SIMON'S BET and HIS ULTIMATE
RESOURCE
How and Why Journalists Avoid the Population-Environment
Connection, by T. Michael Maher, March 1997
Negative Population Growth, by John B. Hall, Sept.
1996
The Food "Surplus": a Staple Illusion of
Economics; a Cruel Illusion for Populations, by Jim C. Fandrem, Winter, 1988
Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population,
Affluence and Technology, by Thomas Dietz and Eugene A. Rosa (1994)
WHY DO WOMEN HAVE BABIES? A book review by Robert
A. McConnell (September, 1996)
HOW TO INFLUENCE FERTILITY: The Experience So Far,
by John R. Weeks (1990)
THE TIGHTENING CONFLICT: POPULATION, ENERGY USE,
AND THE ECOLOGY OF AGRICULTURE, by Mario Giampietro and David Pimentel (1994)
LIVING WITHIN OUR ENVIRONMENTAL MEANS: Natural
Resources And An Optimum Human Population, by Rachel F. Preiser (1994)
National Security Study Memorandum 200 April 24,
1974
The 1972 Rockefeller Commission Report on U. S. Population,
July, 1969
WHY EXCESS IMMIGRATION DAMAGES THE ENVIRONMENT
from Population-Environment Balance (1992)
IMMIGRATION, JOBS & WAGES: The Misuses of Econometrics,
by Donald L. Huddle (1992)
IMMIGRATION AND THE U.S. ENERGY SHORTAGE, by Donald
Mann, President Negative Population Growth, Inc. (May 1988)
FULL HOUSE is a Worldwatch book review.
THE LAST OASIS is a Worldwatch book review.
NET LOSS is a Worldwatch book review.
TOP OF THE NINTH, by Joel Campbell
CLIMATE CHANGE
James White, co-author of
a study published in the journal Science, said that the Antarctica ice cores
show a temperature increase of about 20 degrees F within a very short time about
12,500 years ago. .. Ice cores from Greenland, near the Arctic, show that at
the same time there was a temperature increase of almost 59 degrees in the
north polar region within a 50-year period, White said. [AP, 10/1/98]
The National Climatic Data
Center has just announced that last month was the warmest September on record
- almost a degree F above the previous record and nearly 4 degrees F above the
average. It is the 9th consecutive month to break the previous all-time record.
... there are areas of the Earth, such as the Arctic, where the temperature
increase is 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit. This is enough to melt permafrost, the
permanently frozen ground that characterizes northern tundra bogs. And melting
bogs release methane, a greenhouse gas. -- [UPI, 10/8/98]
U.S. government scientists
said this year's "ozone hole" over Antarctica was the largest ever
observed, leaving an atmospheric depletion area greater than the size of North
America over the southern land mass. [Nando, 10/7/98]
THE CLIMATE BOMB: Climate Change and the Fate
of the Northern Boreal Forests, Greenpeace, 1994
SUDDEN CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH HUMAN HISTORY, by
Jonathan Adams and Randy Foote
Dead on Arrival: positive feedback in the climate
system
BP STATEMENT ON GLOBAL WARMING, by John Browne,
Group Chief Executive, British Petroleum (BP America) Stanford University,
19 May 1997
THE HEAT IS ON: The warming of the world's climate
sparks a blaze of denial, by Ross Gelbspan (12/95).
DEAD. WRONG. Is a short essay on the fundamental
errors of industrial society. Also included are some references for OZONE
DEPLETION and GLOBAL WARMING.
link
to Changes in Time in the Temperature of the Earth
A series of six charts displaying variations in temperature from the Mesozoic
to the present, see the web site listed below. The current "blip"
is put in perspective, based on the work of a number of scientists. References
are cited.
link to Globally-Averaged
Atmospheric Temperatures A brief discussion with figures depicting global
lower stratospheric temperature variations during the period 1979 to 1997,
based on data obtained by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
TIROS-N satellite.
DISEASE
link to Questions
and Answers On Bio-Warfare/Bio-Terrorism (Q & A) with Dr. Ken Alibek
http://www.emergency.com/1999/alibek99.htm
link to "The
Bioweaponeers" at http://cryptome.org/bioweap.htm
HEALTH IN THE HOT ZONE How would global warming
affect humans? By Richard Monastersky (April, 1996)
DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE, AND THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL
ENVIRONMENT, by Gretchen C. Daily & Paul R. Ehrlich, 1995
link to The
Challenge of Antibiotic Resistance Certain bacterial infections now defy
all antibiotics. The resistance problem may be reversible, but only if society
begins to consider how the drugs affect "good" bacteria as well
as "bad", by Stuart B. Levy (Scientific American, 03/98)
link to Drugged
Waters Does it matter that pharmaceuticals are turning up in water supplies?
by Janet Raloff (Science News 3/21/98)
MORAL THEORY
A General Statement of the Tragedy of the Commons,
by Herschel Elliott, Feb. 1997
Christianity and Evolutionary Ethics , by Patricia
A. Williams (June 1996)
THE NEED FOR TRANSCENDENCE IN THE POSTMODERN WORLD
a short essay by By Vaclav Havel (1994)
CARRYING CAPACITY
OVERSHOOT, the classic by William Catton, 1982.
Ethical Implications of Carrying Capacity , by
Garrett Hardin (1977)
CULTURAL CARRYING CAPACITY: A biological approach
to human problems, by Garrett Hardin (1986)
THE WORLD'S MOST POLYMORPHIC SPECIES: Carrying
capacity transgressed two ways, by William Catton (June 1987).
THE INTRODUCTION, INCREASE, AND CRASH OF REINDEER ON
ST. MATTHEW ISLAND - by David R. Klein (April, 1968).
POPULATION POLITICS: The Carrying Capacity of the
United States, by Dr. Virginia Abernethy (1993)
HUMAN CARRYING CAPACITY DEFINED defines "carrying
capacity".
TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS
West Africa is becoming
the symbol of worldwide demographic, environmental, and societal stress,
in which criminal anarchy emerges as the real "strategic" danger.
Disease, overpopulation, unprovoked crime, scarcity of resources, refugee migrations,
the increasing erosion of nation-states and international borders, and the empowerment
of private armies, security firms, and international drug cartels are now most
tellingly demonstrated through a West African prism. West Africa provides an
appropriate introduction to the issues, often extremely unpleasant to discuss,
that will soon confront our civilization. ... -- Robert
D. Kaplan
Tragedy of the Commons Re-stated, by Jay Hanson,
6/14/97
THE FATAL FREEDOM (the Tragedy of the Commons),
by Jay Hanson 8/29/97.
The Tragedy of the Commons (the original) , by
Garrett Hardin (1968)
EASTER's END, by Jared Diamond
SUSTAINABILITY
REFLECTIONS ON SUSTAINABILITY, POPULATION GROWTH,
AND THE ENVIRONMENT - REVISITED, by Albert A. Bartlett, January 1998
LAWS, HYPOTHESES, OBSERVATIONS AND PREDICTIONS RELATING
TO SUSTAINABILITY from Al Bartlett (1994)
The Meaning of Sustainability: Biogeophysical Aspects,
by John P. Holdren, Gretchen C. Daily, and Paul R. Ehrlich (1995)
Population, Sustainability, and Earth's Carrying Capacity:
A framework for estimating population sizes and lifestyles that could be sustained
without undermining future generations , by Gretchen C. Daily and Paul
R. Ehrlich (1992)
Three General Policies to Achieve Sustainability
, by Robert Costanza (1994).
Sustainable Development. Conventional versus Emergent
Alternative Wisdom, by David Korten (1996).
SUSTAINABLE ENGINEERING: Resource Load Carrying
Capacity and Kphase Technology, by Peter Hartley (1993)
Socioeconomic Equity: A Critical Element in Sustainability,
by Gretchen C. Daily & Paul R. Ehrlich (Feb, 1995)
Foreclosing the future, by Gretchen C. Daily (Nov.
1995)
UNSUSTAINABILITY: A CONSENSUS is a short piece
by Paul Ekins about unsustainability.
CREATING JOBS IN A SUSTAINABLE WORLD, by Nadia
Steinzor - ZPG Reporter (Sept/Oct, 1996)
GREENING THE CORPORATION, by Ward Morehouse. Address
to the Greens Gathering, Los Angeles, August 16, 1996
OTHER ECOLOGY
THE LANGUAGE OF ECOLOGY defines "overshoot",
crash" and "die-off".
HUMAN APPROPRIATION OF THE PRODUCTS OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS,
by Peter Vitousek, Paul R. Ehrlich, Anne H. Ehrlich and Pamela Matson (1986).
The Patch Disturbance Species, by John Logan, Jan.
2, 1997.
AMERICA'S TREES ARE DYING, by Charles E. Little
(1995)
WHAT DANGERS LIE AHEAD? by James E. Lovelock (1994)
RETURN OF THE GROUP: People may have evolved to
further collective as well as individual interests, by Bruce Bower (1995)
OTHER SYSTEMS
The Epistemological Revolution: A focus on how we
know what we know in changing times.
POSITIVE FEEDBACK is an example of the catastrophic
view.
URBAN DYNAMICS a short clip from a book by
Jay Forrester (1969)
Rewards of Pejoristic Thinking, by Garrett Hardin
(1977)
WHO BENEFITS? WHO PAYS?. by Garrett Hardin (1985)
An Ecolate View of the Human Predicament. by Garrett
Hardin(date ?)
The Problem of Induction, by Sir Karl Popper (1953,
1974)
URBAN DYNAMICS a few quotes from Jay W. Forrester.
LIMITS TO GROWTH discusses the Club
of Rome's seminal work.
ODDS AND ENDS
"a
kind of Pontius Pilate feeling" -- by Jay Hanson, 04/01/97
ABSTRACT:
In this essay, I examine the economic model of "rational man" and
how the model legitimizes prevailing public policy. "Rational man"
supposedly weighs the important, known variables and then makes that decision
which is most likely to achieve the desired end (the greatest "utility").
Thus, we can say that public policy is founded on the notion that people calculate
the utility of each decision, somewhat like a computer.
But modern cognitive
science has shown that people do not make decisions by calculating the utility
of each decision. Thus, economic "rational man" is a fraud that leaves
the public exposed to ongoing economic and political exploitation
by corporate media experts. Moreover, this fraud provides economists and
political leaders with effective "moral cover", or in the words of
Adolph Eichmann, "a kind of Pontius Pilate feeling" that leaves them
free of all guilt for their dirty deeds.
KNOW THYSELF -- A Report of the Dominant Animal
Life on the Third Planet: Executive Summary, by Yaj, January 24, 1997.
Requiem, by Jay Hanson, Feb, 20, 1998
THE INDUSTRIAL RELIGION draws a parallel between
the churchmen who fought against the Copernican Revolution and the modern
economic "growthmen".
THERMODYNAMICS AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF FOOD PRODUCTION,
by Jay Hanson, November 4, 1996
WHERE WILL IT END? by Jay Hanson.
SYSTEMS CRASH provides three different sources-using
three different data sets-showing a worldwide includes a table showing review
on WHO WILL FEED CHINA , a press release on THE
COLLAPSE OF THE WORLD'S FISHERIES, an article on FISH
FARMING , a short release on THE
EARTH'S CARRYING CAPACITY, a clip from THE
COMING ANARCHY , and a discussion of NPP .
CORPORATE RULE gives a short history of the modern
corporation and describes its essential functions. It also contains a book
review of WHEN CORPORATIONS RULE THE WORLD
by David Korten.
ENDING CORPORATE GOVERNANCE:
We The People Revoking Our Plutocracy.
THE COMING ANARCHY, by Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic
Monthly, February 1994. Quicktime Movie of
Dead Babies Being Thrown Into a Dump Truck CNN, November 1996 [
Download the Quicktime Movie Player from Apple ]
Rural Rwanda Faces Uneasy Balance of Fear as Refugees
Return New York Times, December 26, 1996.
ELEVEN INHERENT RULES OF CORPORATE BEHAVIOR is
a short essay by Jerry Mander.
ELECTRONIC HEROIN is about the addictive qualities
of television.
TV MUTANTS is about how television alters the human
brain.
BRAINWASHING is about how television influences
human actions.
WARREN CHRISTOPHER ON U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY
(1996)
UNDERWEIGHTING OF BASE-RATE INFORMATION REFLECTS IMPORTANT
DIFFICULTIES PEOPLE HAVE WITH PROBABILISTIC INFERENCE by Robert M. Ham
(1994)
VICE PRESIDENT GORE CALLS FOR "ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT
CARD" Challenges Federal Agencies, Scientific Community To Monitor
Nation's Ecosystems from The White House (1996)
HTML-coding: Jacob Lund Fisker
Site editing, maintenance, and updating
with Macromedia Contribute 2.
|
|
