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| About site: http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/climate-change.htm |
Title: Issues/Environment/Climate Change/Activism - A Critical Examination of Climate Change An analysis of the data, by Douglas Hoyt.
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A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
by
Douglas Hoyt (bio and references)
Email: dhoyt@toast.net
On these web pages we take
a critical look at climate change and particularly climate change over the
last 25 years where data is good. Some of the material comes from an old website
at erols.com that now no longer exists. Much of material will be new based
on new developments in the last few years.
The material is organized into
several categories, with introductory statements on this page and more detail
discussion in the links. The material will be updated form time to time.
PROBLEMS WITH THE GREENHOUSE WARMING THEORY
There are several problems
with the theoretical underpinnings of the standard IPCC theory of global warming
due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases (AGHG). These problems are listed here
with more discussion in the links.
1. The IPCC theory has a roughly
3.5 W/m2 decrease in outgoing thermal radiation from a doubling
of carbon dioxide. The number is based upon an instantaneous doubling of carbon
dioxide and assumes no change in the continuum radiation. This topic is discussed
further here.
2. The sensitivity of climate
without any feedbacks is (33 C / 148 W/m2) or 0.22 C/W/m2,
so the basic change in climate is 0.22 * 3.5 C or 0.7 C for a doubling of
carbon dioxide. Recently Schwartz has deduced empirically that the climate
sensitivity is approximately 0.25 C/W/m2, and equilibrium time
is 2-3 years (Requirements for empirical determination of Earth's climate
sensitivity by S. E. Schwartz at the AAAS Annual Meeting, Denver CO, February
14-18, 2003
http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/abstracts/Empirical.html). Most empirical determinations
of climate sensitivity place it somewhere between 0.07 and 0.26 C/W/m2.
In contrast, the IPCC says
a doubling of carbon dioxide will cause a warming of 1.5 to 4.5 C and have
a climate sensitivity between 0.43 and 1.29 C/W/m2. They get these high numbers
by assuming a number of positive feedbacks exist including changes in water
vapor, cloud cover, and snow and ice cover. The water vapor feedback is incorrect
and is discussed here.
3. The sum total of all feedbacks
is assumed to be positive. Recent published work shows they are negative and
these results are reviewed here.
4. IPCC economic models overestimate
the rate at which carbon dioxide will enter the atmosphere over the next century.
It leads to farfetched warming numbers such as 5.8 C. A critique is offered
here.
5. Some easily modeled effects
such as an increase in depolarization factor of air with more carbon dioxide
are totally neglected in the climate models. Further discussion here.
Summary: Based upon the first
three points above, the upper limit on warming due to a doubling of carbon
dioxide is 0.7 C and it is probably much less. The high numbers used by the
IPCC are not supported by measurements.
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS FOR THE RECENT WARMING
According to the surface measurements,
climate has warmed by about 0.18 C/decade since 1979. Many people attribute
all this warming to AGHGs, but alternative explanations exist. They are listed
below with links to further discussion.
1. The sun may have warmed
over the last 25 years and caused most if not all the warming as discussed
here.
2. The albedo of the Earth
has decreased (the planet is getting darker and absorbing more radiation).
This will warm the planet and is discussed here. Land use changes are also
discussed here.
3. Contrails have increased
in recent years and will lead to a warming on regional and perhaps a global
scale as discussed here.
4. Fossil fuel burning releases
heat directly to the atmosphere and will cause a warming over the continents.
It is discussed here.
5. Urban heat islands (UHI)
are substantial (several degrees Celsius in many cases and larger than the
predicted AGHG warming). Placing thermometers near cities and downwind of
cities may lead to a warming that is falsely attributed to AGHGs. The effect
is substantial and is discussed here along with a mention of land
use changes. Further
support that urban heat islands represent half of the reported warming in
the twentieth century (0.3 C out of 0.6 C) comes by examining the changes
in the diurnal temperature range (DTR).
6. Other explanations for the
recent warming include:
a. Decrease in explosive volcanic
eruptions in recent years.
b. Increased intensity of El
Nino in the last few years.
c. More carbon aerosols (soot)
in the atmosphere.
d. Soot on snow.
e. Decreased stratospheric
ozone.
f. Internal changes in circulation
such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO).
CLIMATE MODEL VALIDATION SCORECARD
Starting in 1997, we created
a scorecard to see how climate model predictions were matching observations.
The picture is not pretty with most of the predictions being wrong in magnitude
and often in sign. An updated version of the scorecard
can be found here. It may be updated yet more
depending upon the publicity that a claim receives or if readers send suggestions.
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An | analysis | of | the | data, | by | Douglas | Hoyt. |
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http://www.warwickhughes.com/hoyt/climate-change.htm
A Critical Examination of Climate Change 2008 October
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An analysis of the data, by Douglas Hoyt.
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