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Title: Issues/Environment/Population/Collapse/Academic Studies - Barren Ground Academic study of declining fertility rates in Eastern Europe. |
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Publications Barren Ground: Eastern Europe's Transition from Communism Isn't the Only Factor Affecting the Region's Demographics Julie DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich A recent BBC report, citing UN research, notes that sliding birth rates may cause the population of Eastern Europe to decrease by a third in the first half of the 21st century. The report attributes these fertility declines primarily to the collapse of communism and suggests that increased government financial and tax benefits to families with children can help address the problem. But economic factors are not the only reason fertility rates in the region have fallen. In fact, the decline predates communism's fall. Moreover, mortality and morbidity for those in their most productive years also have contributed to population losses and affect the economic performance of the region. Fertility in Eastern Europe has been low or declining for at least several decades (see graph). In Russia, fertility rates have been falling for at least 100 years, from about seven children per woman at the end of the 19th century to less than three in the 1950s and under two in the early 1980s. Fertility in Poland fell from nearly four children per woman in the 1950s to just over two by the late 1980s. Since the early 1960s, fertility in Hungary has been below replacement levels with the exception of a short period in the mid-1970s. Fertility in Albania remains above replacement levels, but it has dropped by nearly two-thirds since the 1950s. The economic crisis of Eastern Europe in the 1990s may have helped to reduce fertility rates there to among the lowest in the world by making couples less able to afford to raise children and generally less optimistic about bringing them into the world. Yet even in times of economic prosperity couples may have reasons for not having children, particularly as women's roles expand outside the home. Birth rates do not decline just because of economic problems. In fact, nations with newfound economic prosperity can also experience steep drops. Spain and Italy have seen great economic improvements in recent decades. Yet, they now have fertility rates (less than 1.2 children per woman) lower than most East European nations. Within Eastern Europe, as the BBC report acknowledges, in several nations where economic recovery has occurred--the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland--it has not reversed the decline in the birth rate. Both the BBC report and the UN research suggest that financial and tax benefits to those with children can help boost fertility levels to replacement levels, while recognizing that such policies require substantial political will. In fact, no nation has yet to sustain such policies to the point that they yielded replacement fertility levels. In Sweden, for example, child and parental leave benefits helped boost fertility rates to just above replacement levels for a short time in the early 1990s, but fertility then declined before these benefits were trimmed in the mid-1990s. The Soviet Union adopted pronatalist policies, offering economic benefits for larger families, in the mid-1980s. After those policies were instituted, fertility rates in Russia climbed to just over replacement levels and remained there until the economic crisis ensued. Since then, fertility rates have fallen precipitously, to a current level of 1.2 children per woman. However, an analysis by Russian demographers Sergei Zakharov and Elena Ivanova highlighted how the pronatalist policies could be deceptive and their effect short-term. Their study found that the increase in fertility rates was largely due to women spacing their births closer together rather than increasing the number of children that they would ultimately have.[1] In Eastern Europe, communist ideology equating population size with national strength was often behind pronatalist policies, including extreme or coercive policies such as the Romanian prohibition of abortion and modern contraception between 1966 and 1989. Such policies can boost fertility rates but also create other problems, including health risks for women with no means to control their fertility aside from illegal, and often fatal, "underground" abortions. So what measures should be taken to halt the decline? Even carefully constructed pronatalist policies would take years to affect fertility rates that have been falling for decades. Because declining fertility is an issue that affects many other nations and regions besides Eastern Europe, addressing the problems resulting from it-such as a declining number of workers to support a growing elderly population-will require global, rather than just regional, initiatives that would consider immigration flows and regulations. For now, there are other pressing population problems in parts of Eastern Europe that may be more amenable to immediate initiatives. In Russia, the annual number of deaths already exceeds the number of births by nearly one million. High mortality and morbidity have been particularly acute among working-age males, whose mortality rates generally have been increasing since the mid-1960s, depriving the economy of many persons in their most productive years. Many of these deaths are preventable through public health initiatives to control the spread of diseases like AIDS and tuberculosis and to improve health behaviors by reducing alcohol consumption and smoking and promoting healthier diets. Russian public health warnings about tobacco use, for example, are now more common. The Russian anti-alcohol campaign of the 1980s appears to have helped cut working-age male mortality, although its unpopularity led to its abandonment after just a few years. Sustained economic progress is likely to improve health and survival. Mortality rates have stabilized in those parts of Eastern Europe where the economy has also stabilized. As economic recovery spreads across more of Eastern Europe, this trend should increase. In the meantime, government officials would be well advised to launch public health initiatives to reduce mortality and morbidity, which would have a more immediate impact than ambitious pronatalist policies. Julie DaVanzo is director of the RAND Population Matters program. Clifford Grammich is a communication analyst for the program. This article was originally published 12 June 2000 in Transitions Online, an Internet magazine covering Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the former Soviet Union. [1] Zakharov S and Ivanova E. 1996. "Fertility Decline and Recent Changes in Russia: On the Threshold of the Second Demographic Transition" in: DaVanzo J and Farnsworth G (eds.) Russia's Demographic "Crisis."Santa Monica, CA: RAND CF-124-CRES.
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