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Title: Future/Predictions - Ian Pearson BT's Futurologist - presents his insights into the future of many aspects of our daily lives - from work to leisure, and from capitalism to the care economy.
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Ian Pearson, Futurologist
Ian Pearson, Futurologist
“Anyone can predict stuff,
but only a few get it right”
Contact, conference and media data
Latest: Carbon (tech v
muddled thinking)
Futures Blog
Finance Blog
The Pearson Guide to the Future (older stuff)
The Futurizon Guide to the
Future (more recent stuff)
About
futurology
Just
occasionally, everyone else is wrong!
I
work as a Futurologist. I study the future. My day to day work with
Futurizon involves tracking developments
across the whole field of technology and society, figuring out where it is all
going next, and how that will affect our everyday lives. I take account of as
many technology and social factors as possible. My main tools are: a strong background
in science and engineering, trends analysis, common sense, reasonable business
acumen, knowing when to listen to other people, and a whole lot of thinking. I
usually get it right, but since the future is never totally predictable, I
sometimes get it wrong too, about 15% of the time. But I specialise in doing
long term stuff, so I have a lot of fun. I hope to be retired before anyone can
prove me wrong.
Although
I use the slightly wacky sounding title of futurologist, I’m just an engineer
making logical deductions for tomorrow based on things we can already see
happening. For example, if someone is investing heavily in a particular
development, and there aren’t any obvious barriers to success, there is a good
chance that they will succeed in due course. Keeping up with externals such as
political, economic and social factors helps improve judgement as to whether
products are likely to succeed, and how they might be used. Anyone with
reasonable intelligence can do it, but it takes a lot of time to internalise
the very many factors involved before you start getting it right. I learned
from experience that computers are of limited use, because although there are
many computer tools on the market, it usually takes longer to explain all the
interconnections to a program than it does to analyse them yourself. I make no
claim to be able to predict the future with absolute accuracy, but I think of
it as like driving a car through fog. You can’t see a very clear picture of
what is ahead, and sometimes you will misinterpret an apparent shape in the
distance, but few of us would drive through fog without bothering to look out
the window. Blurred vision is a lot better than none at all! The same is true
for business.
Some
people claim to be able to predict the future by more dubious means.
Astrologers, mystics, psychics, tea-leaf readers (and almost all other new age
craft practitioners) generally talk total twaddle, often dressed up to look
like science. They use scientific terms such as ‘energy’ and ‘vibration’ a lot,
but in a nonsensical way. There are two kinds of such practitioners: fools and
frauds. The fools actually believe what they say and are simply misguided. The
frauds know it is rubbish but persist because it offers them a living. Both
often use woolly language so that their predictions can be interpreted to fit
almost any set of circumstances that arise. Occasionally they get it right by
pure coincidence. Don’t be taken in by them. If these practices aren’t accepted
by the scientific world, it’s not because no-one has checked them out. It’s
because these things have been thoroughly checked out and they simply don’t
work. It’s as simple as that. Check out the sceptics society for more
information. They successfully debunk a large number of these so called professions.
By
way of light-hearted evidence that it is all nonsense, even though I have no
idea who you are or when you will read this, I offer the following ‘Mystic Meg’
style lottery prediction for this week: I see a plumber in Birmingham
and an electrician from London,
and a young man called Bob. They will all win prizes. Also, your stars show
that you will soon hear from someone you haven't seen for a long time. How
about some graphology and palm reading? Hold a sample of your handwriting up to
the screen, and then put your palm on the screen so that I can feel your
psychic harmonics, all things are connected through all time at the quantum
level so it will work just fine, have faith. Ah yes, it’s all coming through
now! I can tell from your vibration that you have quite a good sense of humour,
that you have an inner artistic streak, you are a responsible driver and your
ambient energy frequency shows that although you are usually quite sociable,
you occasionally like to have time to yourself. But your fourth and seventh
chakras are slightly out of balance, making your conscious self out of harmony
with your heart, so you have probably had a tiff with someone you really care
for recently, and although you are usually caring and creative, you have recently
had a few periods when you have felt slightly drained. How’s that? There is a
70% chance or more that it works for you now, whenever you read it. If it
doesn’t work, are you sure, perhaps your psychic aura is just concealing it
from your conscious mind to protect you. Come back next week and try tying a
red string around your wrist, it might work then, and get your crystal retuned,
its energy field is probably out of alignment. Astrologers and other charlatans
rely on the fact that if they get it right even occasionally, some mugs will
fall for it. Please don’t be one of them. This stuff is all complete nonsense!
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BT's | Futurologist | - | presents | his | insights | into | the | future | of | many | aspects | of | our | daily | lives | - | from | work | to | leisure, | and | from | capitalism | to | the | care | economy. |
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http://www.btinternet.com/~ian.pearson/
Ian Pearson 2008 October
dvd rental
dvd
BT's Futurologist - presents his insights into the future of many aspects of our daily lives - from work to leisure, and from capitalism to the care economy.
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