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Title: Issues/Warfare and Conflict/Specific Conflicts/India-Pakistan - Why Nuclear Conflict is a Real Threat Reports on the danger of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. The Guardian, UK. (May 23, 2002)
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Why nuclear conflict is a real threat | World news | The Guardian
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Why nuclear conflict is a real threat
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Luke Harding in New Delhi and Rory McCarthy in Islamabad
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Thursday May 23 2002
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on Thursday May 23 2002 . It was last updated at 02:27 on May 23 2002.
In July 1999 Pakistan's then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, flew to Washington for a tense meeting with President Bill Clinton. Several weeks earlier Pakistani troops had seized a chunk of Himalayan territory inside India near the town of Kargil. India had responded furiously and demanded that the Pakistanis withdraw. As Mr Sharif pleaded for American help, an angry Mr Clinton informed him that Pakistan had already started deploying its nuclear weapons. Mr Sharif appeared shocked and admitted he knew nothing about it. The man who almost certainly ordered the secret deployment - General Pervez Musharraf - is now the man with his finger on Pakistan's nuclear button. Four months later, Gen Musharraf, then the head of the army, overthrew Mr Sharif in a coup. He is now Pakistan's president. Three years on, the prospect of a nuclear conflict between the subcontinent's most deadly enemies is, most analysts believe, even greater. For many within India's increasingly war-like Hindu nationalist BJP party, Kargil is still unfinished business. Jane's Information Group estimates that India has between 200 and 250 nuclear weapons, compared to 150 for Pakistan. Others believe the figures are much lower and say Pakistan has 40-52 nuclear bombs compared with 60-80 Indian ones. Reports this week suggest Pakistan has already deployed its Shaheen I missiles - mobile 500-mile range solid-fuel rockets - which can be readied for use within minutes. Both sides have also "soft-wired" their bomber aircraft to allow them to drop nuclear weapons - Pakistan by F16 and India by MiGs and Mirages. For years Pakistan has been developing a comprehensive missile delivery system. According to a CIA report in January, China has been providing "significant assistance" to Pakistan's ballistic missile programme. Now Pakistan is moving towards serial production of the Shaheen I and the Haider I, another solid-fuel short-range ballistic missile, the report said. Two years ago the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) released photographs of Pakistan's nuclear reactors. The satellite pictures showed a plutonium reactor at Khushab, near Lahore, which the FAS said could produce five bombs a year. Another base at Sargodha showed a dozen garages for missile launchers. The FAS said Pakistan may have up to 84 short-range Shaheen missiles at the site, with 20 launchers. According to the official Pakistan Institute for Air Defence Studies, Pakistan has "one of the world's most sophisticated and formidable indigenous missile weapons systems programme". The institute admitted Pakistan received "specimen guidance and propulsion systems" from Chinese and North Korean missiles, quickly advancing its own programme. On the other side of the divide, India has been developing its own indigenous ballistic missiles over the past 18 years as part of what it calls an Integrated Missile Development Programme. The Agni I missile - named after the Hindi word for fire - has a range of 435 miles, which covers most of Pakistan, and uses solid fuel for a quick launch. It can also be transported by rail, making it less vulnerable to "pre-emptive strikes". In April 1999, India test-fired its first strategic missile, Agni II, which has a range of 1,550 miles and is capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to anywhere in Pakistan and much of China. It has now gone into production. India also has a short-range Prithvi missile, with a 93-mile range, still capable of striking Lahore or Islamabad. So the technology is undoubtedly there. What is causing intense worry in the region and around the world is that the political will to use it seems increasingly to be there too. India has traditionally been reluctant to attack Pakistan. This can be explained by its uncertainty about how Pakistan would respond. But any doubt appears to have been swept aside, as senior Indian officials hint openly that it is time to "call Pakistan's nuclear bluff" as troops mass on the border. Under this scenario, India would "teach Pakistan a lesson" by attacking militant training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Pakistan would refrain from deploying its nuclear weapons because of the presence of US troops on its soil. If it did, New Delhi could respond with massive force, wiping out all of Pakistan's cities and major population centres. "Use of nuclear weapons by Pakistan would be a very short recipe for national suicide," Prof Brahma Chellaney of New Delhi's Centre for Policy Research, said. The problem is that Pakistan does not share this view. Islamabad is acutely aware that India enjoys a vastly superior conventional army - with about 1.2 million troops compared to Pakistan's 700,000. Pakistan has already made it clear that, in the face of a superior enemy, it would be prepared to initiate a nuclear confrontation - unlike India, which has a strict "no first use" policy.
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Reports | on | the | danger | of | a | nuclear | conflict | between | India | and | Pakistan. | The | Guardian, | UK. | (May | 23, | 2002) |
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/kashmir/Story/0,2763,720475,00.html
Why Nuclear Conflict is a Real Threat 2008 October
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Reports on the danger of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. The Guardian, UK. (May 23, 2002)
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