Series of EmergencyNet News Reports of Escalating Conflict Between India and
Pakistan in the Kashmir Region - 23 May, 1999 to 01 June 1999
 Series of EmergencyNet News
Reports of Escalating Conflict Between India and Pakistan in the Kashmir Region - 23 May,
1999 to 04 June 1999
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Friday, June 4, 1999-Vol. 5 - 155
INDIA: Police said at least 30 people were wounded when a bomb concealed
in a bag exploded outside a police station on Thursday in India's capital. The blast
happened in the Chandni Chowk area in New Delhi's old quarters at a time when many people
were shopping. The wounded included three policemen, but most of the others were
bystanders who had gathered around the unclaimed bag. The bag containing the bomb was
found by a shop-owner, who took it to the police station. The bomb exploded outside while
police were waiting for explosive experts to come and defuse it. No one immediately
claimed responsibility for the blast.
INDIA/PAKISTAN: India and Pakistan have again been exchanging intense
artillery fire in the disputed region of Kashmir, amid reports that a captured Indian
fighter pilot has been handed back to his country. Indian officials said soldiers were
locked in combat with what India has described as Pakistani-backed infiltrators in Drass
and the Mushkoh Valley. Officials said army columns were moving up in support. Artillery
firing was also reported to have spread to other points along the ceasefire line which
divides Kashmir. The Press Trust of India said an Indian army convoy came under heavy
Pakistani shelling near Kargil in Indian-administered Kashmir, but added no one was
wounded.
US STATE DEPARTMENT ISSUES SECURITY ADVISORY FOR INDIA
On 2 June, the US Department of State issued the following Public Announcement in
regards to the situation in India: "Military activity along the line of control
between India and Pakistan in the State of Jammu and Kashmir has intensified since late
May. Fighting in the area has occasionally resulted in the closing of Srinagar airport for
civil aviation, and the closing of roads in the area.
The road from Srinagar (National Road No. 1) through Drass and Kargil is closed to
civilian traffic and not scheduled to open until June 15. The Leh area of Ladakh in Jammu
and Kashmir is unaffected at this time. The Department of State strongly urges U.S.
citizens to avoid all travel to the Kashmir valley area of Jammu and Kashmir. Srinagar,
the city of Jammu, and the Kashmir valley remain dangerous places where terrorist
activities and violent civil disturbances continue." There is an increased risk to
Western interests in India from global terrorism. Visitors to New Delhi should take extra
care. Bomb explosions occur in public places in the city from time to time. Public
transport has been targeted in various parts of India including New Delhi. The North East
is a disturbed region. Visitors should travel on essential business only, or in escorted
groups. Permits are required for travel to Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur
and Mizoram. Visitors should be wary of approaches by strangers. Confidence men
(particularly in Agra and Jaipur) promise a substantial cash reward for delivery of
jewelery abroad but only in return for an initial financial deposit. The jewelery is
invariably worthless and the deposit is lost. Driving on Indian roads can be hazardous.
Poor driving and badly maintained vechicles, together with unlit or poorly lit buses and
trucks are the main cause of accidents. Piracy/armed robbery against ships has occurred in
and around India's waters. Mariners are advised to be vigilant and take appropriate
precautions.
ERRI analysts advise against travel to all parts of the state of Jammu and Kashmir,
apart from Ladakh. In Ladakh, avoid the area around Kargil, where there is currently a
clash between Indian forces and militants, and shelling from across the Line of Control.
Travel to Ladakh should be by air or via Manali in Himachel Pradesh, not via Srinagar. The
road from Srinagar to Leh is presently closed in the Kargil area. Two landmines have
exploded in recent days on the Srinigar to Jammu road. There is a serious risk of
kidnapping and there have recently been bombs targeted at trains and buses en route to
Jammu, and serious incidents in the Jammu region. There have been bomb blasts in public
places in Srinagar and Jammu and elsewhere in the Kashmir Valley. Visitors to India should
be aware of travel agents who will try to convince them that it is safe to travel to the
state of Jammu and Kashmir. Despite increased official promotion of Kashmir as a tourist
destination, tensions remain high there. No matter how convincing the agents appear to be,
their advice should not be followed. In their threat assessment, ERRI analysts consider
India to be a HIGH RISK.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Thursday, June 3, 1999-Vol. 5 - 154
INDIA/PAKISTAN
LITTLE HOPE SEEN IN TALKS TO END INDIA/PAKISTAN TENSION
A senior Indian minister warned there is little point in peace talks with Pakistan
while India is trying to suppress militants in Indian-administered Kashmir. Tensions
between the two countries are rising as India continues its campaign against the
guerrillas. India says Pakistan is supporting armed groups on the Indian side of the
Kashmir Line of Control, which separates the region into Pakistan and Indian-administered
areas.
Pakistan, which denies supporting the guerrilla fighters, is planning to send its
foreign minister to Delhi for talks aimed at alleviating the crisis. No date has been set
for the mission, which has been put in doubt by the Indian government's latest statements.
Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh said: "There cannot be peace talks if Pakistan
keeps engaging in acts of aggression. I do not believe that such an intrusion could have
been planned, executed, or supported in the fashion in which it has been, without the
active connivance and support of the Pakistani armed forces."
Since India began its campaign against forces inside Indian-administered Kashmir,
firing across the demarcation line has intensified. Pakistan reports that schools on its
side of the border have been hit two days running by Indian missiles. India denies hitting
civilian targets. Islamabad has described the situation as dangerous and tense, and has
warned of an escalation of its efforts in the region.
The latest fighting represents the worst crisis in the region since the two countries
fought their last war over Kashmir nearly 30 years ago. This time both India and Pakistan
have nuclear weapons.
All India Radio has reported that Indian forces have made new advances in its campaign
against the infiltrators. The radio quoted a senior military officer as saying it had
recaptured several important parts in the Batalik sector. Indian Prime Minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee had offered the guerrillas a safe passage to Pakistan if they agreed to
leave Indian territory. He warned that air and ground attacks would continue until the
offer was accepted. But the proposal has been rejected by a group representing United
Jihad Council, a group said to represent 14 militant groups, including the four main
groups apparently fighting in the Kargil district.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Tuesday, June 1, 1999-Vol. 5-152-09:05CDT
INDIA/PAKISTAN
HEAVY FIGHTING REPORTED IN KASHMIR
Pakistan says at least nine children were killed when their school was hit by Indian
mortar fire in Pakistani-administered Kashmir. The school is said to be located in Neelum
valley. Police said several other children were injured, but there has been no independent
confirmation of the attack. The Indian Defense Ministry has denied the report. The attack
came as heavy fighting was reported in the disputed region with India pressing on with
combined air and ground strikes against suspected infiltrators.
Indian military sources are quoted as saying fighting continued overnight against
Pakistani-backed militants. Fresh air raids were launched on Tuesday morning with Indian
Mirage 2000 fighters pressed into service. Close combat is also being reported under the
cover of artillery and sniper fire.
Indian military sources have reported a heavy troop build up on the Pakistani side of
the border. India has also massed more than four times its normal troop size, although
accurate figures are hard to come by on either side.
Heavy artillery fire continued on day seven of the conflict.
As the fighting continued, the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Sartaj Aziz, said he hopes
to receive confirmation from India soon as to when he can travel to New Delhi to begin
talks aimed at easing the tension over Kashmir. India has agreed to host Aziz in New
Delhi - the first sign that the two sides might want to defuse the tensions over Kashmir.
On Monday, Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes outlined India's losses and said he
was unable to place a time-frame on the conflict. He said India had killed 320 militants
and 150 Pakistan soldiers in fighting along the line of control.
The official Pakistani news agency has said that the rebels are firmly entrenched and
have made considerable gains against the Indian army. Pakistan's army claimed it repulsed
three separate attacks by Indian troops along the disputed border, inflicting heavy
casualties. The statement could not be independently confirmed. The army statement said
two Pakistani soldiers and an army officer were killed.
Close combat on the 15,100-foot high Tololing peak raged through the night in what
commanders said was a crucial battle against the guerrillas. Indian soldiers reportedly
neared guerrilla positions, in some places within 10 yards, said commanders.Two Indian
soldiers were killed Monday by sniper fire on Tololing.
Guerrillas also control nearly a dozen smaller hills near Tololing, but the Indian
commanders said their troops would not directly assault them. Instead they will encircle
the positions and try to starve out the guerrillas.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Monday, May 31, 1999-Vol. 5, No. 151-09:53CDT
LEAD FOCUS
INDIA/PAKISTAN SITUATION COULD LAST UP TO THREE MONTHS ...
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
INDIA/PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) - India has agreed to a visit by the Pakistani
Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz for talks to try defuse the escalating crisis over Kashmir.
An Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had accepted
the offer of his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, to send Mr Aziz to Delhi. The
spokesman said that the dates for the Pakistani foreign minister's visit will be worked
out through diplomatic channels.
The announcement came even as India continued its combined ground and air operations
against what it claims are Pakistani backed infiltrators for the sixth day. Indian Defense
Minister George Fernandes has said India lost 43 men with 173 wounded and 12 missing. He
said India had killed 320 militants and 150 Pakistan soldiers in fighting along the line
of control.
Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said that Pakistan was attempting
to alter the frontier in Kashmir. He described it as a kind of invasion. He also accused
Pakistan of preparing for the confrontation when the two nations were meant to be trying
to improve relations.
The official Pakistani news agency has said that the rebels are firmly entrenched and
have made considerable gains against the Indian army.
On Saturday, Indian officials said a pilot whose plane was shot down by Pakistan forces
over Kashmir died from bullet wounds suffered after he ejected safely. The body, which was
returned to India on Saturday, was said to have two bullet wounds - one to the head and
one to the chest.
Indian Air Marshall SK Malik said: "We condemn this. It was a cold-blooded murder,
an act of cowardice. Ahuja (the dead pilot) also had a fractured left knee which is
perhaps an injury caused after his ejection from the plane."
Malik said a post mortem carried out in India concluded that the MiG-21 pilot died from
the head wound, and that the shot to the chest had damaged his internal organs. He added
that Squadron Leader Ahuja was shot down while trying to locate a colleague, whose MiG-27
fighter plane crashed into the Pakistan-administered Kashmir after suffering mechanical
failure.
Pakistani military spokesman Brigadier Rashid Qureshi said the allegation was
ridiculous, as the pilot would have been more valuable alive than dead. Qureshi said that
the pilot was dead before troops arrived on the scene, but he said he had asked for more
information about the circumstances of his death.
The Pakistani military spokesman said a decision would be made soon over India's demand
for the release of the pilot from the other plane downed last Thursday. The pilot was
identified asK Nachiketa. The spokesman said certain legal procedures had tobe followed
before Nachiketa could be freed, because the pilot had been carrying out hostile acts
against Pakistan.
Following artillery exchanges between Indian troops and about 400 unidentified
infiltrators in Indian-administered Kashmir, the deployment by New Delhi of warplanes and
helicopters is the most serious escalation for more than 20 years. But as so often in
Kashmir, the events of recent weeks have been subject to the usual claims and
counter-claims by India and Pakistan.
The latest clashes are taking place on the so-called "Line of Control" (LOC),
one of the most inhospitable lines of demarcation in the world. The boundary divides
Kashmir on a two-to-one basis, with India controlling the larger territory. For six months
of the year, heavy snow on the Line of Control makes the area uninhabitable.
Even the Indian army pulls out from time to time when the weather is exceptionally
severe. Skirmishes happen regularly, mostly in the summer, when the snows melt in the high
passes. Until now, the clashes have tended to be short-lived, with the insurgents
reluctant to engage the Indian forces in heavy fighting.
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since they won independence from Britain in
August 1947, two of them over Kashmir. The Line of Control itself was originally
established in January 1949 as a ceasefire line, following the end of the first Kashmir
war. In July 1972, after a second conflict, the LOC was re-established in the Simla
Agreement, with minor variations.
The LOC is monitored by 45 military observers of the United Nations Military Observer
Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP). According to the UN, their mission is "to
observe, to the extent possible, developments pertaining to the strict observance of the
ceasefire of December 1971 and to report these to the Secretary-General".
India has some 30,000 troops in the area, including special forces and paratroopers.
The Indian army says that what it calls "infiltrators" are holding a small
stretch of territory on the Indian side of the demarcation line - a region that includes
the Dras, Kargil and Putali sectors of the Batelik mountain range. The Indian authorities
insist that the militants - believed to include the Tehrik-e-Jihad group - have received
support from the Pakistani army.
According to the Indian military command, the militants in Kargil probably moved in as
early as the end of April. Then, following an early thaw, the army says the
"infiltrators" pressed on into Indian territory, occupying high-altitude
positions. The terrain has meant that any Indian army offensiveis fraught with difficulty.
Indeed, army sources suggest the fighting around Kargil could last at least three months.
Pakistan has adamantly denied the Indian allegations, saying New Delhi is using claims
of infiltration as a pretext for stepping up its presence in this highly-inflammable area.
Islamabad says it does not provide logistical or other support. Any militants operating on
Indian territory are acting alone.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Sunday, May 30, 1999-Vol. 5, No. 150-09:07CDT
LEAD FOCUS
LATEST SITREP ON INDIA/PAKISTAN TENSIONS
From the ERRI Watch Center
INDIA/PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) - India says it has made significant gains in its
continuing air, artillery and ground operations against what it calls infiltrators in
Indian-administered Kashmir. According to an Indian military spokesman, Indian troops are
on the verge of hand-to-hand fighting in some areas.
Indian Major General JJ Singh said some areas in Indian-administered Kashmir,
previously held by infiltrators, had been retaken, following four days of fighting. The
Indian military reported that in the small town of Drass, infiltrators were reportedly
dug-in barely 50 yards from Indian troops in some places. However, Pakistani military
officials said the latest Indian attacks seem to have been less intense than in previous
days.
Following Pakistan's diplomatic moves on Saturday, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari
Vajpayee said he was willing to talk, but that there would be no let up in the military
campaign to eject alleged infiltrators from Indian territory.
However, Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes said on Saturday: "We do not
believe it will escalate into a war." Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, has
written to the United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan, asking him to send a special
envoy to the region and enlarge the UN observer mission there.
Fernandes responded to this by saying that India had assurances from the UK, the US,
Russia and France - all permanent members of the UN Security Council - that the council
would not discuss the fighting.
India's Major General Singh said around 300 "infiltrators" had been killed
and nearly 700 wounded - more than half of the original number who had taken positions in
Indian territory. He said there was now evidence of Pakistan regular army involvement in
the intrusion - something Pakistan has denied.
India, for its part, has admitted that one of its downed warplanes had strayed into
Pakistani airspace before it crashed. The body of one its pilots has been returned by
Pakistan. Altogether, India has lost three aircraft - two warplanes and a military
helicopter. Officials said the helicopter was brought down by a shoulder-launched Stinger
missile. All four crew members were killed.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI
Risk Assessment Services-Saturday, May 29, 1999-Vol. 5 - 149-09:37CDT
LEAD FOCUS
ERRI ANALYSIS OF INDIA/PAKISTAN TENSIONS
By Steve Macko, ERRI Risk Analyst
INDIA/PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistan says its foreign minister, Sartaj Aziz,
will travel to India early next week to ease tensions in the disputed Kashmir region.
Information minister Mushahid Hussain says Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee of India
accepted the offer Pakistan made on Friday to send Aziz to New Delhi. News of the mission
came only hours after India admitted one of its downed war planes had strayed into
Pakistani airspace before it crashed.
The admission was made at a military briefing, as combined air and ground operations
continued for the fourth day in Indian administered Kashmir. The army spokesman, Major
General JJ Singh, reported considerable successes against suspected infiltrators, with
around 300 killed and nearly 700 wounded. Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, has
written to the UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, asking him to send a special envoy to the
region and enlarge the UN observer mission there.
Earlier Sharif and Vajpayee spoke about the crisis via a special hotline, and they
agreed to resolve the crisis by dialogue. Speaking at a public meeting, held to mark the
first anniversary of Pakistan's successful nuclear test, Sharif said he had called for
urgent talks with Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee.
He said Vajpayee had agreed to the suggestion. There was no indication when or where
the talks might take place. Sharif said he also told the Indian Prime Minister that
sending planes to the Pakistani side of the line of control would only aggravate the
situation.
As was reported by EmergencyNet News on Friday, Indian officials announced a third
aircraft - a military helicopter - had been shot down. Officials said the helicopter was
brought down by a shoulder-launched Stinger missile during operations to dislodge what
they describe as Pakistani-backed infiltrators, high in the Himalayas. All four crew
members were killed.
On Thursday, two Indian fighter jets were downed by Pakistani armed forces, but they
have denied any involvement in bringing down the helicopter. Pakistan says the two jets
were shot down after violating its airspace above Pakistani administered Kashmir. In
Kashmir itself, thousands of people have fled their homes following fighting near the line
of control with Pakistan.
India says the infiltrators are mostly Islamic insurgents from Afghanistan, but with
some Pakistani army regulars included. Pakistan says it has no knowledge of a recent
infiltration of rebels from Pakistani territory, and has denied helping the infiltrators.
Although it is impossible to state the number of militants who are fighting against
India in Kashmir, most analysts agree that since the insurgency began in 1989, the number
has increased from hundreds to thousands.
The various militant groups face a substantial Indian security presence. According to
figures provided by the Indian military, there are about 125,000 troops and paramilitaries
in the Kashmir Valley and surrounding areas. Unofficial figures put that figure much
higher.
The biggest and most influential insurgent factions are based outside the Kashmiri
summer capital Srinagar and appear to be committed to accession to Pakistan. However, the
three main groups are reluctant to stipulate in detail what they are fighting for, beyond
the removal of India from Kashmir. The three biggest groups currently fighting in Kashmir
are Lashkar-e-Toyeba, Hizbul Mujahideen and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. It remains to be seen
how long they will remain powerful because many militant groups in Kashmir that were
prominent five years ago no longer appear to wield influence today.
The pro-independence Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front was one of the most active
militant groups at the start of the Kashmir insurgency, but today this group appears to
have a dwindling membership and far less military power.
All three of the currently largest militant groups are thought to have bases in
Pakistan, which says it provides them only with political, diplomatic and moral support.
But India alleges that most militant groups receive weapons directly from Pakistan.
Lashkar-e-Toyeba is predominantly made up of non-Kashmiri fighters and is thought to
embrace a rigid form of Sunni Islam. Hizbul Mujahideen is one of the older militant
groups, comprised mostly of Kashmiris. It has been active since the early days of the
insurgency.
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen is believed to have been formed out of a merger of two factions,
and according to defense sources it is in effect an international brigade, composed mainly
of Afghans, Pakistanis and even some Arabs.
Non-Kashmiris first joined the insurgency in large numbers in 1994. Estimates of their
number vary from 600 to 2000. Recently another group, called Tehreek-e-Jehad, has emerged
in Pakistan and made statements which it says are on behalf of the militants targeted by
India in the Kargil area of Indian administered Kashmir. This group, like many others that
have emerged then disappeared in Kashmir over the last decade, was previously
unheard of.
One of the few organizations allowed by India to operate against its presence in
Kashmir is the Hurriyat Conference. This is a non-violent umbrella group of secessionist
organizations. It is made up of at least 23 constituent groups including trade unions and
religious and political organizations. Although the Hurriyat is at pains to disassociate
itself from violence, it is believed that the political wings of some militant groups are
represented within its membership. Analysts say that Hurriyat's influence in Kashmir is
undermined by its lack of unity. Members cannot agree, for example, whether Kashmir should
become independent or part of Pakistan.
The current escalation in tensions in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir is
leading to fears of a widening conflict between India and Pakistan. Only a few months ago
the two countries seemed to be moving towards improving relations. So what went wrong?
After tit-for-tat nuclear tests last year, the two countries appeared to move closer
together.
This was, in part, to reassure the international community that the two new
nuclear-armed states would not bring about a nuclear conflict on the sub-continent. In
February, an historic visit by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to Pakistan was
intended to push that message further, and the resulting Lahore Declaration sought to
bring about a cross-border dialogue on their declared nuclear capability. A subsequent
Pakistan trade mission to India highlighted the need for cross-border trade between the
two. But Kashmir has always been a sticking point.
Some analysts are keen to play down the importance of the latest incident, in view of
the wider improvement in Indo-Pakistan relations. They say that neither India nor Pakistan
have a game plan and that the current situation is the result of confusion and
miscalculation. They also say it is a localized problem and a matter of mismanagement
along the border area.
But as the game of claim and counterclaim continues over the events in the mountainous
area around Kargil, there can be no ignoring the fact that this is the most serious crisis
within the region since 1991, when militant insurgency reached its height.
The situation is, in part, one of embarrassment for the Indian army, which was caught
unaware by the militants who managed to dig in quickly in the mountainous terrain. India
had decided to use air power because it believed it would be a more effective and
cost-efficient way of clearing the area without employing a large number of ground troops.
Pakistan recognizes India's military superiority in terms of the size of its
conventional forces. But domestic forces in both countries will, ultimately, determine the
course each government takes. Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif may be swayed by
public opinion, which is unlikely to tolerate what it sees as unprovoked Indian
aggression. And while Sharif may be reluctant to retaliate, he must retain the confidence
of his armed forces.
Some argue that without a resolution on Kashmir, which was always likely to be a
flashpoint between the two countries, the improving relations between India and Pakistan
were just illusory. According to this view, the world media was overly optimistic
about moves by both sides to patch up their differences.
The events in Kashmir come at a time when the BJP party in India is trying to stress
its commitment to national security ahead of September's general election. Neither India
nor Pakistan can afford an escalation in the crisis, despite what public opinion in both
countries might want.
But neither can Pakistan's Sharif or India's Vajpayee afford to look weak. And while
they may not want the hostilities to intensify, the danger is that the forces they have
unleashed could spiral out of control over the disputed region.
ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk Assessment
Services-=Friday, May 28, 1999-Vol. 5 - 148-08:01CDT
NEWS IN BRIEF
INDIA/PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) - India denied a television report that
it rushed its top fighter jets to the disputed region of Kashmir on Friday to enhance
airstrikes against alleged Islamic guerrillas. The private STAR TV news channel said the
Indian air force dispatched its Sukhoi fighter jets to beef up its strike capability. The
move comes one day after two Indian MiG jets crashed in Pakistan and a third was reported
downed on Friday. A military spokesman in New Delhi said, however, that the report was
"a false statement made by somebody." Pakistan had accused India of escalating
hostilities in the mountainous frontier with the reported deployment.
LEAD FOCUS
INDIA LOSES THIRD AIRCRAFT IN KASHMIR OPERATION
From the ERRI Watch Center
INDIA/PAKISTAN (EmergencyNet News) - India has lost another aircraft on the third day
of its air campaign against suspected infiltrators in the disputed region of Kashmir.
Indian sources in Kashmir say the military helicopter may have been shot down during
operations to dislodge what they describe as Pakistani-backed infiltrators high in the
Himalayas.
One report from Kashmir says the pilot managed to eject before it crashed. The loss of
the helicopter follows the downing of two Indian warplanes on Thursday. However India says
it is making substantial gains in cutting off supply lines to the insurgents.
Unconfirmed reports from the private STAR television channel say that New Delhi has
dispatched advanced Sukhoi-30 fighter jets to strengthen its strike capability in
Indian-administered Kashmir. Thousands of people have fled their homes following fighting
near the line of control with Pakistan.
On Thursday, the two countries traded accusations over the downing of two Indian
warplanes. India accused Pakistan of committing "a hostile and provocative act"
by shooting down an Indian fighter that Delhi says was trying to help another jet
experiencing mechanical difficulties. Pakistan said it shot down both planes - a MiG-21
and a MiG-27 - when they violated its airspace and that it was holding one of the pilots
as a prisoner of war.
Pakistani Information Minister Mushahid Hussain said the pilot was in good health and
might be put on television later on Friday. The other pilot was said to have been killed,
and the wreckage of the planes was found well inside Pakistani-administrered territory.
Helicopter gunships and bombers took part in strikes in mountainous territory near the
line of control which divides Indian and Pakistani-administered Kashmir on Wednesday and
Thursday.
India says the infiltrators are mostly Islamic insurgents from Afghanistan, but with
ome Pakistani army regulars included. Indian officials say there will be no let-up
in the air strikes until their forces have reached their goal of re-occupying their
positions at heights of 5,000 meters, which are being held by a large group of
infiltrators.
United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, Russia, Japan and China have all appealed
for calm. On Thursday, US State Department officials expressed American concern to the
Indian and Pakistani ambassadors in separate meetings.
Pakistan is reportedly preparing for further retaliation but is unlikely to take action
that will lead to all out war. The government has called for the UN to send an envoy to
the region. Pakistan says it has no knowledge of a recent infiltration of rebels from
Pakistani territory, and has denied helping the infiltrators. It has warned that it
reserves the right to retaliate if Indian attacks spill over the line. Its army is on high
alert.
For several weeks, India had been using mortar fire and heavy artillery in its attempt
to dislodge more than 600 men from mountainous territory in the northern Kargil region.
The intensification of the conflict is of particular concern following Indian and
Pakistani nuclear tests in May 1998. Military analysts continue to say that at this point
all-out war between India and Pakistan is thought unlikely.
In other news from Kahsmir -- A senior defense official said on Thursday that four
people were killed and six others were wounded in a bomb blast on a key highway connecting
the Kashmir valley with the rest of India. The bomb went off at Banihal on the
Jammu-Srinagar road, some 125 miles east of Jammu.
The defense official said an improvised explosive device (IED) hit an army vehicle in
the village of Gund near Banihal, where the highway passes through a Himalayan range that
divides the southern Jammu region from the Kashmir valley. Two children of an army colonel
and two soldiers died in the blast, while the wounded were army men.
Excerpted frrom: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Thursday, May 27, 1999-Vol. 5 - 147-09-06CDT
LEAD FOCUS
PAKISTAN SHOOTS DOWN TWO INDIAN FIGHTER JETS
From the ERRI Watch Center
PAKISTAN/INDIA (EmergencyNet News) - Pakistan says it shot down two Indian fighter jets
that crossed into its territory along the disputed Kashmir border. A military spokesman
said the planes - a Mig-21 and a MiG-27 - had violated Pakistani air space. Brigadier
Rashid Kureshi said one pilot had been killed, the other had been captured and the
wreckage of the planes was in Pakistani territory.
The incident came as India carried out further air strikes against what New Delhi
describes as Pakistani infiltrators inside Indian-administered Kashmir. The shooting marks
a new level of conflict between Pakistan and India.
Pakistani Information Minister Mushahid Hussain said the jets were targeted in self
defense. He said: "We hope that Indians will see sense, they will see reason, and
they will stop these violations of Pakistani air space."
India launched a third wave of air attacks on Thursday, despite international calls for
restraint. Helicopter gunships and air force bombers took part in strikes in mountainous
territory near the line of control which divides Indian and Pakistani-administered
Kashmir.
The air attacks against the infiltrators, said by India to be mostly Afghan nationals,
but with some Pakistani army regulars included, began on Wednesday. Indian officials say
there will be no let-up in the air strikes until their forces have reached their goal of
re-occupying their positions at heights of 5,000 meters, which are being held by a large
group of infiltrators. India says it has been targeting tents, stores and hideouts
used by the infiltrators. Indian Television reported that at least 200 had been killed.
India has denied Pakistani reports that bombs fell on the Pakistan side of the line of
control. Pakistan says it has no knowledge of a recent infiltration of rebels from
Pakistani territory, and denied helping the infiltrators. It has warned that it reserves
the right to retaliate if Indian attacks spill over the line. It has put its army on high
alert and called on the United Nations to send an envoy to the region. An Indian military
spokesman said some military movement had been observed on the Pakistan side, but nothing
provocative.
For several weeks, India had been using mortar fire and and heavy artillery in its
attempt to dislodge more than 600 men from mountainous territory in the northern Kargil
region.
The two countries have fought three wars in the past 52 years, two of them over
Kashmir. The intensification of the conflict is of particular concern following Indian and
Pakistani nuclear tests in May 1998.
At this point, an all-out war between India and Pakistan is thought unlikely. But
analysts say some political initiative will be necessary to calm tensions and there is no
sign of where that might come from.
The following are key facts about the two South
Asian nations' reported military capabilities:
INDIA:
Total Armed forces - 1,175,000 plus 528,400 reserves.
 Army:
980,000 personnel in five regional commands,
3,414 battle tanks,
one surface-to-surface missile regiment.
Navy: 55,000 personnel in four principal commands,
one aircraft carrier,
six destroyers,
19 submarines,
18 frigates.
Naval Air Force has 67 combat aircraft including 17 Sea Harriers and 83 armed
helicopters.
Air Force: 140,000 personnel,
772 combat aircraft and
32 armed helicopters.
*****
PAKISTAN:
Total Armed forces - Active 587,000, plus 513,000 reserves.
Army:
520,000 personnel,
2,120 tanks,
18 surface-to-surface Hatf 1 missile, Hatf 2 (under development).
Navy:
22,000 personnel,
nine submarines,
eight frigates,
two destroyers.
Naval Air Force has seven combat aircraft and 12 armed helicopters.
Air Force: 45,000 personnel, 410 combat aircraft.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Wednesday, May 26, 1999-Vol. 5 - 146-08:40CDT
TENSIONS BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN HEAT UP AGAIN
From the ERRI Watch Center
INDIA (EmergencyNet News) - India on Wednesday launched its first peacetime air strikes
in Kashmir and warned Pakistan not to interfere as New Delhi used force to dislodge
guerrillas. The raids marked the worst turn in ties with Pakistan since the neighbors
tested nuclear weapons a year ago and signaled a sharp departure from the annual
summertime skirmishing across a cease-fire line in Kashmir.
Pakistan reacted cautiously to the strikes, saying it would defend itself if attacked.
An Indian Defense Ministry statement said: "Any escalation of this conflict will be
entirely the responsibility of Pakistan. This is the start of operations and they will
continue till our defense forces reoccupy our territory."
Defense officials said Mi-17 helicopter gunships backed by jet fighters made six
sorties between 0630 and 0830 hours local time, strafing the Drass and Kargil sectors
where hundreds of rebels were dug in. The Press Trust of India news agency said Srinagar
airport in Indian-ruled Kashmir had been closed to civilian traffic and additional troops
were being airlifted to Drass and Kargil.
New Delhi said it was forced to stage the air strikes because the intruders, many of
them suspected Afghan militants, would have been difficult to neutralize with ground
action alone as they were dug in on "very high ridges."
The Indian defense statement said: "They are not only supported directly by the
Pakistan Army, but Pakistan Army regulars are believed to be participating along with
them. If not contained at this stage, Pakistan would have been encouraged to extend its
operations further. Delayed action would have called for a more severe action, possibly
increasing the areas as well as the scope of operations."
India stressed that its air attacks, which it described as "effective," were
staged well inside the Line of Control, the cease-fire line that divides Kashmir between
the hostile neighbors.
A senior Indian defense official said on Tuesday that Afghan mercenaries backed by
Pakistani army supplies had quietly taken position on several heights overlooking a
strategic road connecting Srinagar with Kargil and beyond to the Ladakh region. Defense
officials said the last straw was when an Indian reconnaissance plane was shot at and hit
two days ago as it flew over the positions held by the militants.
Excerpted from: ERRI DAILY INTELLIGENCE REPORT-ERRI Risk
Assessment Services-Sunday, May 23, 1999-Vol. 5 - 143-10:13CDT
INDIA (EmergencyNet News) - Police said suspected Muslim separatists threw a grenade
into a crowded marketplace in India's Kashmir, killing a woman and wounding 47 other
people on Saturday. The unidentified attackers lobbed the grenade at a military convoy in
the marketplace. It missed and exploded near a popular street seller. The attack happened
in Baramulla, about 35 miles north of Srinagar. There was no immediate claim of
responsibility.
December 21, 1998--Bin Laden
Now Said To Be Building Additional Bases And Command Center (Reference to build-up and
training of Kashmiri rebels)
Series of EmergencyNet News
Reports Converning Increasing Nuclear Crisis Between India and Pakistan: 05/12/98 to
05/28/98
February 12, 1998--Pakistan: A
Country Seeking A Political Identity
ERRI Pakistan/Kashmir Advisory
Sheet
(c) All materials copyrighted by EmergencyNet News Service, 1999. All rights reserved.
Redistribution without permission is prohibited by law.
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